Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Simple math: #YoVotoNo = #YoNoVoto = #N1Mas = #NoMoreCastroRegime

"Nonviolent action is just what it says: action which is nonviolent, not inaction. This technique consists, not simply of words, but of active protest, noncooperation, and intervention. Overwhelmingly, it is a group or mass action." - Gene Sharp  

#YoVotoNo =  #YoNoVoto = #N1Mas = #NoMoreCastroRegime
The Cuban opposition today is preparing for the February 24, 2019 sham the Castro regime calls a "constitutional referendum."  Part of the Cuban democratic opposition is calling on Cubans to stay home and not vote. While another part of the opposition is calling on Cubans to go to the polls and vote no.

The current Cuban Constitution, a Stalinist invention adopted in 1976 was modified twice: first in 1992 and a second time in 2002, but for the purposes of this essay will not focus on the changes, but on Article 137 that deals with constitutional changes.
"If the modification has to do with the integration and authority of the National Assembly of the People’s Power or its Council of State or involves any rights and duties contained in the Constitution, it shall also require the approval of the majority of citizens with the right to vote by means of a referendum called upon for this purpose by the Assembly itself."
This means that a majority of the total population of eligible voters would have to vote "Yes" for the new draft of the constitution to pass. Both opposition campaigns are valid and compliment each other.  Whether one refuses to vote or votes no they are not part of the "Yes," and are rejecting the Castro dictatorship.

Despite this, there is still a debate that presents two positions. On the one hand encouraging Cubans to abstain from voting is an act of non-cooperation and powerful. It also is relatively low risk.  On the other hand voting no is also relatively low risk, but presents a possibility to mobilize around polling places, and also present challenges to vote count methodologies in an act of nonviolent intervention that can also generate change.

A democratic movement has room for debate and conversation, but one should also remember the old Roman dictum for conquering enemies: divide et impera (divide and rule).

These are tactical debates within a shared nonviolent strategic network and the Cuban democratic opposition should be able to navigate these differences and engage in conversations and understandings in order to present a united and democratic front against the dictatorship. It also presents an excellent opportunity to expose the anti-democratic nature of the Castro regime.

21 years ago, under very different circumstances, on the other side of the world a democratic opposition was able to work together to send a message rejecting a long term dictatorship.
 
In 1988 Chile held a plebiscite on the rule of General Augusto Pinochet who had taken power on September 11, 1973 and ruled over the country for 15 years.  This plebiscite would mark the beginning of the end of the Pinochet dictatorship.  To vote "Yes" was to vote for continued military rule and to vote "No" was to vote for a democratic restoration.

On February 24, 2019. Cubans will have an opportunity to reject the murderous dictatorship in Havana. This sham vote will take place twenty three years to the day that two Brothers to the Rescue planes were shot down over international airspace while engaged in a search and rescue for Cuban rafters killing the four pilots on board.

Let Cuban democrats unite in rejection of the Castro regime, and in support of justice and a democratic transition. Let us also remember Armando Alejandre Jr. (age 45), Carlos Alberto Costa (29), Mario Manuel de la Peña (24), and Pablo Morales (29), the four men murdered in an act of state terrorism by the Castro regime on February 24, 1996 while they sought to save Cuban lives.

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