Venezuela: Contested elections in a non-democratic country

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." - Winston Churchill

 Watching the news and the twitter stream with reports out of Venezuela on the contested presidential elections there brought to mind a recent presentation at the San Francisco Freedom Forum organized by the Human Rights Foundation. It is available below:

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The presentation was made by William Dobson the author of the The Dictator's Learning Curve. The wave of democratic revolutions in the 1980s and 1990s and democracy promotion became a cottage industry demonstrated that it is a difficult time for dictators but nevertheless the past five years have seen a sustained decline in freedom around the world. Dobson in his book set out to travel around the world to some of the least free countries and ask the question why this was happening and the book The Dictator's Learning Curve is the end result.

Dictators are now learning how to navigate in the modern technological world in which information cannot be contained but now has to be managed. Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, although a disciple of Fidel Castro, has not been able to follow the blunt path of his mentor to maintain power.

Dobson discusses how laws are broadly drafted and as a Venezuelan activist told him applied by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela: "For my friends everything for my enemies the law."

Unlike Cuba in Venezuela opposition parties are legal and although greatly restricted, harassed and persecuted there is a legally recognized independent media. Finally, unlike Cuba, where "elections" for the dictatorship win 99% of the vote in Venezuela, as in Russia, there has to be an appearance of competitiveness. There is no value in winning 99% the only election that has value is the one that appears competitive. Dobson says that 70% is the new 99% although Putin "won" with 63% and now Chavez with 54%. Today's modern dictator understands that facing outside pressures the regime has to learn and adapt with new techniques, strategies, and formulas to hang on to power.

That also means that for democrats to succeed that they must also learn to adapt to the new tactics and strategies of the regime in order to learn how to overcome them. Winning the vote in Venezuela is not enough. Having an opposition structure in place to ensure that the vote and count is fair along with the capability to mobilize large numbers of people into a coherent strategy to ensure that the election results are recognized and that the election be seen not as the end of a dictatorship but as the beginning of a process of democratic transition.

Venezuela is not a democracy. Power has been concentrated for more than a decade into the hands of Hugo Chavez, his political party and Cuban handlers. The judiciary and the Congress were subordinated to Hugo Chavez. What you have had in Venezuela today is a contested elections in a non-democratic country. If Capriles is able to take power then the hard work begins to rebuild Venezuelan democracy and if Chavez is victorious the struggle to begin a democratic transition continues.

Who Will Decide Venezuela’s Election?

The Election in Venezuela on October 7, 2012 is one that will impact the Americas but the world. It is for this reason that the Shared Concern Initiative finds voices from around the world following events in that country.

The following analysis was published on Forum 2000 on the September 27th. To read from the original publication, please click here.

Shared Concern Initiative’s Statement on the Presidential Election in Venezuela

The Shared Concern Initiative is releasing its new statement on Venezuela on the eve of the country’s presidential election. “Who Will Decide Venezuela’s Election?” is based on a fact-finding mission conducted by Forum 2000 representatives in Venezuela.

On October 7, 2012, Venezuelans will choose between incumbent President Hugo Chávez and opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.

Unlike previous elections, opinion polls give Hugo Chávez only a marginal lead over his opponent. Although this is a positive sign pointing to the existence of free political competition, serious concerns remain over the lack of media freedom in the country. Denying the opposition access to media risks altering the results of the October election.

“The lack of free media is especially alarming and does not bode well for the free and fair election. It is essential that the opposition can freely air its message and target prospective voters. The lesson has not been lost on the Chávez regime as it seeks to curtail further the opposition’s ability to reach out to voters.”

Concerns have also been voiced over the state of President Chávez’s health and his ability to fulfill a fourth term.

“Chávez’s health remains perhaps the biggest enigma of the upcoming election. There are conflicting reports regarding his state of health, with some presenting a grim prognosis. His sudden departure due to illness might cause a political vacuum, which could become conducive to a power grab of one form or another, such as a military coup. Strict adherence to constitutional provisions in any such eventuality is imperative.”

The Shared Concern Initiative advises the following to ensure a democratic election in October.

“In order to ensure a level playing field, the Venezuelan opposition should have equal access to media, and official attacks on media outlets must stop. On Election Day itself, the opposition should be able to place observers at any and all polling stations without fear for their safety. In addition, we appeal to the Venezuelan government to act in accordance with established practices and accept the presence of international election observers.”

The statement was signed by eight members of the Shared Concern Initiative: Frederik Willem de Klerk, André Glucksmann, Vartan Gregorian, Michael Novak, Yohei Sasakawa, Desmond Tutu, Richard von Weizsäcker, and Grigory Yavlinsky.

The statement has been released to selected world media and its full text will be available on our website from October 4, 2012. More information about the Initiative can be found here.

For a more detailed picture of contemporary Venezuelan politics, we encourage you to read our report “Venezuela on the Eve of Presidential Elections” which is available here. The report provides a well-informed analysis of the current political situation in Venezuela in the run-up to the October presidential election and its potential implications for the country and the international community. The report is based on a rich collection of information gathered during the fact-finding mission to Venezuela, as well as from a wide range of open sources available both in Spanish and English.

Last but not least, the 16^th annual Forum 2000 Conference in Prague will host a special roundtable discussion on the outcome of the presidential election in Venezuela. The session will offer an insight into both the imminent political fallout as well as more long-term ramifications for Venezuela’s future. The conference takes place in Prague from October 21–23, 2012. More information about its program can be found here.