February 6, 2018 was Rosa María Payá Day in Miami-Dade County

Here is a partial breakdown, looking back over the past year, of why this is a well deserved honor.

Rosa María Payá (center) honored today by Miami-Dade County

February 6, 2018 was recognized by Miami-Dade County as Rosa María Payá Day. The 29-year old activist addressed the county commission asking for support for a plebiscite in Cuba. She also dedicated the honor granted her to persecuted activists Lia Villares, Luis Trapaga and her martyred father Oswaldo Payá Sardiñas.

Honor dedicado a la lucha de #OswaldoPaya asesinado por el régimen castrista y en reconocimiento a @liavillares y #LuisTrapaga perseguidos hoy por la policia política en la Isla.#CubaDecide impulso a continuación resolución contra la sucesión dinástica en #Cuba #Plebiscito pic.twitter.com/THYMsvIWDV

— Rosa María Payá A. (@RosaMariaPaya) February 6, 2018

Over the past 12 months alone Rosa has engaged in courageous acts of smart activism to expose the injustices of the Castro regime and the hypocrisy of powerful interests complicit with the dictatorship.

Last year on February 27, 2017 Rosa María Payá Acevedo delivered to the Ministry of Justice of the Castro regime an appeal for a judicial review into the events that caused the death of her father, Oswaldo Payá, and her friend Harold Cepero on July 22, 2012. Rosa María explained at the time:

"With this process, the last legal possibility of discussing the case in Cuba is exhausted. By law, one of these authorities must respond within 90 days. Consequently, we remain waiting, without prejudice to the allegations and with evidence that we will present in various international legal forums."

Rosa María returned to Cuba on July 17, 2017 to honor the legacy of Oswaldo Paya and Harold Cepero in the days leading up to the fifth anniversary of the attack that ended both their lives.

On July 22, 2017 Rosa María Payá Acevedo tweeted that CubaDecide was banned in Cuba, describing it as "the error with which Google joins censorship in Cuba." This led to a flurry of tweets about the question of censorship and Google in Cuba. Mary O'Grady of The Wall Street Journal tweeted "Google bows to Cuban censorship." 

Mary Anastasia O'Grady in her August 27, 2017 column in The Wall Street Journal titled "Google’s Broken Promise to Cubans" exposed the high tech companies hypocrisy and complicity with the Castro dictatorship, and referenced Rosa's tweets as the inspiration for the essay.

Rosa, and her mom Ofelia Acevedo Maura, on October 26, 2017 exposed the false claims made by the Castro regime that Cuba was opening to the diaspora. While trying to portray an opening on travel Cuban officials did not allow Cuban national Ofelia Acevedo to return to Cuba together with her daughter. They stopped Ofela at the airport in Havana and forced her to leave the country.

Sham municipal elections were held on November 26, 2017 and Rosa, along with CubaDecide, conducted a campaign to encourage Cubans to write "Plebiscite" on the ballots in protest.

On February 5, 2018 she appeared in the Mexican edition of Vogue with six other prominent political activists who had taken part in the Oslo Freedom Forum.

Rosa is also the president of a Latin American youth network. "Juventud LAC" that has launched a campaign to ask the incoming government of Chile not to invite Venezuelan strong man Nicolas Maduro or Cuban dictator Raul Castro to the transfer of power in Chile.

⚠ #ElQueLosInvitaEsComplice Súmate a la campaña pidiéndole al @GobiernodeChile que no invite a @NicolasMaduro 👨🏻 ni a Raúl Castro 👴🏻 al cambio de mando de Chile 🇨🇱

Apoya la iniciativa en el siguiente link https://t.co/c5zfcYyFZ1 pic.twitter.com/MfrNdztWsx

— Juventud LAC (@JuventudLAC) February 6, 2018

 It is fitting that Miami-Dade County, home to the Cuban exile, would recognize this courageous young woman.

Cuba policy and the 2016 election in Florida

"Soon someone will come out with another push poll telling us Cuban Americans support Obama Cuba policy. Forget polls and watch the elections." - Frank Calzon, over twitter on November 8, 2016

Bay of Pigs Veterans endorsed Donald Trump

The usual suspects are trying to diminish the message sent by Cuban American voters this past Tuesday. The argument made is that Miami-Dade County went massively for Hillary Clinton and at the same time use a poll circulated by the radical National Council of La Raza called Latino Decisions to claim that Cuban Americans voted massively Democrat, but they have an ideological agenda not served by Trump doing better than expected among "Latinos." Furthermore they claim that votes for Trump were not necessarily related to Cuba policy but the facts say otherwise.

First the well respected Pew Research Center placed Latino support for Donald Trump at 29% who outperformed Mitt Romney (who got 27% in 2012). According to exit polls Trump got 54% of the Cuban American vote, but the actual vote may have been higher.

Secondly, the turn out in Miami-Dade County was due to the Hillary Clinton campaign having a fully developed Get Out the Vote Effort and infrastructure that got out more of the vote than Obama in 2012. The Trump campaign did not have that but still Donald Trump in 2016 got slightly more votes than Mitt Romney got in 2012 (333,666 vs 332,981).

However what is left out in this "analysis" is that statewide the margin that won Donald Trump Florida and the presidency was just 119,970 votes. It also ignores how critics of President Obama's Cuba policy won big in Miami-Dade County.

Donald Trump, perhaps looking at the same flawed polls claiming that Cuban Americans supported Obama's Cuba policy gave it luke warm support and in May of 2016 was polling 33% among Cuban Americans. This changed radically in mid September when Mr. Trump contrasted himself from Hillary Clinton promising to overturn Obama's Cuba policy if human rights did not improve on the island. His change on Cuba policy was welcomed by Congressman Mario Diaz - Balart.

How the Hillary Clinton campaign responded during the past two months: downplaying her anti-embargo position, a hit piece in Newsweek and putting out radio ads accusing Trump of violating the Cuban Embargo and partisans going after him with the same message on social media. This was obviously done to peel off Cuban American support. They of course ignored that President Bill Clinton in the 1990s like President Barack Obama today was encouraging businesses to explore business opportunities in Cuba, loosening economic sanctions and shook hands with a Castro.

Today in Florida, I pledged to stand with the people of Cuba and Venezuela in their fight against oppression- cont: https://t.co/8eELqk2wUw

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8, 2016

Mr. Trump responded by doubling down and pledging his support for a free Cuba and in October he was endorsed by the Bay of Pigs Veteran Association. This was the first time in the organization's history that they had endorsed a presidential candidate. Over twitter both he and Governor Mike Pence tweeted their support for freedom in Cuba.

.@realDonaldTrump will repeal Obama's Executive Orders on Cuba & continue the embargo until there is real political & religious freedom

— Mike Pence (@mike_pence) November 5, 2016

The Obama administration issuing a Presidential policy directive on United States-Cuba Normalization on October 14th that called for US intelligence agencies to share information with the Castro dictatorship's secret police outraged many. Add to that the failure of the Obama administration to defend current US law at the United Nations by abstaining in a vote on the Cuban embargo and repeating regime talking points angered many. By October 27, 2016 polls placed the Cuban American vote at 52% which was a 15 point shift.

There was a final factor that was death of Janet Reno on the eve of the election brought back the traumatic Elian Gonzalez episode to many Cuban Americans in Miami. On that same day Mary O'Grady asked in The Wall Street Journal: "Will Obama's Cuba Policy Lose Florida for Clinton?" and the answer a day later was, despite the claims of the anti-embargo lobby and the National Council of La Raza, was an unequivocal yes.

Obama's Cuba policy and Hillary Clinton's strident support for it were profoundly unpopular with Cuban American voters and contributed to a Trump victory in Florida on November 8th.

Like it or not the claims made by some that the Cuban American community had changed and politicians could support rapprochement with the Castro regime and not suffer on election day were wrong and contributed 29 electoral votes to President Elect Donald Trump.

Consider the following breakdown. Pew placed the number of Cuban American voters in 2012 at 771,000. The Associated Press in a video report offered a lower estimate for the Cuban American vote citing a source that said 8% of over 8 million votes in FL would be Cuban American which would total 640,000.

Using the above numbers and looking at the shift in support for Donald Trump in May 2016 when he supported Obama's Cuba policy and was getting between 33% and 37% of the Cuban American vote compared to October 2016 when he rejected the White House's Cuba policy and saw his support rise to 52%.

Lowest range of Cuban American support shifting before and after was 96,000 votes and the highest range was 146,490. The average of the two was 121,245 votes. Considering that Mr. Trump won Florida by just 119,970 and the importance of this shift in the Cuban vote over Cuba policy shows that it was decisive in delivering the 270 electoral votes.

Conclusion: Obama Cuba policy cost Hillary Clinton the White House.

Clinton, Trump and Cuba Policy: Only poll that counts is the one on Election Day

Obama's Cuba policy will be weighed at the polls in November

Donald Trump repudiated Obama Cuba policy today in Miami, FL

The 2016 presidential election was going to be a wash on Cuba policy with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump supporting Obama's failed Cuba policy. Until today when Mr. Trump in Miami announced that he had changed his mind on the President's Cuba policy. CNN reported on what the GOP presidential candidate said today in South Florida:

Trump -- speaking in a state with a heavy Cuban voting bloc -- characterized Obama's deal as "one-sided" and benefiting "only the Castro regime."

"But all of the concessions that Barack Obama has granted the Castro regime were done with executive order, which means the next president can reverse them. And that is what I will do unless the Castro regime meets our demands," Trump said Friday.

"Those demands will include religious and political freedom for the Cuban people and the freeing of political prisoners," Trump said.

This new contrast over Cuba will test the FIU poll of Miami Cubans and their supposed strong support for Obama's Cuba policy. Recall that Marco Rubio who has repudiated the Obama Cuba policy lost across the state of Florida in the Republican primary but won Miami-Dade County handily with the Cuban American vote. Trump's about face on Cuba policy will be good news for the GOP in South Florida where Cuban Americans upset over the December 17, 2014 announcement now have a candidate that they can support.  Jorge Perez, a prominent businessman promoting engagement with the Castro dictatorship, lost influence with candidate Trump over Cuba policy.

This will also turn around the erosion in support for the Republican Party by Cuban American voters. The bottom line is that like the Asian American vote, the Cuban American vote is profoundly anti-communist and in the case of Cuba taking a tough stand on the Castro brothers will deliver votes.

The Trump phenomenon is a rejection of the professional political class, of which Hillary Clinton is a paradigmatic example, due to the economic pain of the middle class.  In an anti-establishment year the GOP nominee holds the trump card as the non-politician in the race for the White House.

Now Cuban-Americans have a choice and not an echo on Cuba policy this November. This is good news for the United States and for GOP prospects in South Florida.

I still have my concerns with the Trump candidacy over issues of torture, complimenting Vladimir Putin and the Chinese communists, but at least on Cuba policy voters now have a clear choice.